Former Pentagon official Michael Rubin, now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, just published a report arguing that Israel may feel compelled to launch a preemptive strike against Türkiye, if it perceives Türkiye's military-industrial complex and regional ambitions as an existential threat. As Türkiye’s navy, air power, and military-industrial plants can be a direct threat to the Jewish state's existence, it might repeat the strategy of its 1967 "Operation Focus".
Rubin's report suggests that a preemptive strike would aim to cripple Türkiye's military capabilities quickly, targeting F-16 fighter jets and major air bases (e.g., Merzifon, Konya, and Incirlik), production facilities for the Bayraktar drones, Naval bases and fleets in the Eastern Mediterranean, and critical military-industrial sites and radar systems.
As a NATO member, any attack on Türkiye would theoretically trigger Article V, though Rubin argues other members and especially the US might block this.
"The man of the Muslim Brotherhood”
In January, 2026, the former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett labeled Turkey as a "new threat" to Israel, placing it alongside Iran in terms of regional hostility. Bennett warned that Israel must act against the growing threat from Ankara.
In February, the last Foundation for Defense of Democracies report titled "Islamist Domination of Turkey: A Forward Base for Muslim Brotherhood-Aligned Jihadism," argues that Turkey has ties with Hamas - the U.S. designated terrorist group responsible for the Oct. 7 massacre — as well as to the Muslim Brotherhood — an Islamist movement whose affiliates have recently been designated as terrorist organizations by the Trump administration — placing Turkey’s policies under renewed scrutiny.
In March, a new report raised concerns about Turkey’s role in the Middle East, arguing that under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the country has moved away from its traditional Western alignment and toward deeper engagement with Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
On April 12, Minister Katz accused Herdogan to be “a man of the Muslim Brotherhood” and there are claims that Türkiye has replaced Iran as a key supporter of Hezbollah and other groups in Syria. Türkiye’s continued role as a "lifeline" and refuge for Hamas leadership makes Türkiye a legitimate target for self-defense. President Erdoğan’s "rhetorical attacks" and military deployments (such as F-16s to occupied northern Cyprus) are viewed as signals of intent to escalate conflict. Besides, the Turkish judicial system is busy making accusations to subject relevant figures in Israeli society to trials in absentia.
