The so-called 11th commandment, “Hamas is deterred,” is well-known to every Israeli. Those of us on the Israeli Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee became acquainted with it long before the terror attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. It was a view echoed by security bodies in every forum.

The assumption was based on a neo-Marxist worldview that sees man as a socio-economic being. Security officials explained that Hamas senior leader Yahya Sinwar would not risk “his immense wealth or Hamas’s social and economic interests.” And even though Hamas is an enemy driven entirely by identity, religion and ideology, the official intelligence assessment firmly concluded that it prioritizes economic interests, hence: “Hamas is deterred.”

Oct. 7 has passed. We have crossed rivers of blood: beheadings, hostages and rapes—a day of Holocaust. And yet, this dangerous refrain continues. The military and political leadership still fail to recognize the true nature of our enemy, define it correctly and confront it accordingly. Israel remains deeply entrenched in the same misguided conception; only the name has changed.

The “Hamas is deterred” concept has evolved into the “head of the snake” doctrine that now guides the security establishment’s strategic outlook. Every discussion in the Israeli cabinet, the National Security Council, security leadership forums as well as in the foreign affairs and defense committee begins with the ultimate preface: “The primary axis: Iran!” Iran is the head of the snake, we are told. Decapitate it, and you will achieve a new Middle East.

Even the Nagel Committee—established to examine necessary changes in the defense budget—concluded unequivocally that investment in ground forces should be postponed since threats from neighboring states were not identified as significant. Iran was deemed the root cause of all threats; therefore, all energy, budgets and training should be directed at countering the Iranian enemy.

The truth is that even Iran itself doesn’t see things this way. Ruhollah Khomeini, who established the ayatollah regime, and his successors were never Iranian patriots. Iran is of no significance to them; it is merely a tool in service of the global revolution. Their primary goal is the religious victory of global jihad. If Iran is destroyed in the process, that is entirely acceptable.

From the outset, the Khomeinist ideology was designed so the global revolution would continue even if Iran fell. This is why radical Shi’ites and Sunnis alike invest above all in religious ideology. And that is the real enemy—not just of Israel but of the entire world.

Leaders who adhere to the old conception are missing this crucial point. The enemy is not a state, army or organization; it is a religious ideology. Wherever it takes root, it fosters both social and military organizations. Even when these organizations are dismantled, they regenerate time and time again. They will always re-emerge because the fuel of the revolution is not military strength; it is spirit. That is what we must break to achieve victory.

The security establishment should have realized “The primary axis: Allah” after Oct. 7. This understanding would have had dramatic implications for Israeli and Western strategy, intelligence assessments and operational planning. The first conclusion from this realization should be Gaza, not Iran.

Why? Because the Oct. 7 war is the ultimate litmus test of how a Western state fares against radical Islamic ideology. If Hamas’s ideology emerges victorious, as has been the case so far, this lesson will be learned in every arena around the world—from London to Tehran, Damascus to Berlin. The conclusion will be that the postmodern West, despite its overwhelming military and economic advantage, does not know how to defeat radical Islam. Consider that:

- The West struggles to target imams and mosques due to a distorted discourse on religious freedom, even though they are the radical Muslim equivalent of Goebbels’ propaganda machine.

- The West fails to understand that victory is defined by control over land because the enemy’s ideology is driven by a totalitarian aspiration to conquer the entire world as a religious imperative.

- The West is incapable of subjugating enemy populations and imposing human values on them because deep down, it justifies their struggle as that of the oppressed proletariat.

This is why the Gaza Strip is the test of the West. If we cannot even secure victory in Gaza, then we will fail everywhere else.

The immediate regional threat is far greater than Iran because the enemy’s goal is the conquest and destruction of Israel. Missiles from Iran would be met with missiles from Israel, and even more strategic weaponry. But what the jihadist fighters did in Gaza could just as easily be done by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Jordan, or in Lebanon and Syria. Against this threat, Israel needs an army with a strong ground force—one with the capability and willingness to seize land, establish control and subdue the population, just as the free world did with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. This is why victory against Iran or anywhere else begins and ends between Gaza and Rafah.

Tragically, our military and political leadership has already folded and retreated from Gaza. The meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump this week will likely continue the “head of the snake” doctrine, focusing primarily on two topics: Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The ultimate enemy—and with it the possibility of achieving total victory—will not even be on the table.

Source: JNS