A “perfect storm” of factors came together to enable the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage agreement, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, former Israeli National Security Advisor, has stated in recent days. In the deal brokered by the Trump administration and several Arab countries, Hamas has agreed to release all 20 living Israeli hostages in exchange for a partial Israel Defense Forces withdrawal (Israel remains in control of 53% of Gaza) and an Israeli release of around 2,000 Palestinian security prisoners.

Amidror was speaking during an Oct. 9 virtual event hosted by the Washington D.C.-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), where he is a distinguished fellow.

“The whole Iranian strategy collapsed. They lost the proxies, they lost the bridge from Tehran to the Mediterranean. They are very vulnerable and they understand they don’t have any shield if the Israelis and Americans decide to renew the war,” he said. “They are out of the stage, they are not there,” said Amidror, explaining one critical factor that enabled the deal.

He also cited relentless IDF pressure on Hamas in Gaza, and the impact of the Sept. 9 Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, which, while not operational success, sent a powerful message. “I believe that the operation in Doha, which was not successful from the intelligence point of view, all of the leaders probably got out of the operation… shook the Qataris, telling them, guys, you lost your immunity. If we decide that this is going with the interests of Israel, we will do it,” said Amidror. He concluded that this, combined with pressure from an Arab world eager for stability and the relentless IDF ground operation closing in on Gaza City, pushed Hamas to the table.

However, while Phase One of the agreement is clear, Amidror warned that Phase Two—concerning the demilitarization of Hamas and future governance of Gaza—is fraught with uncertainty. He called the second phase the “main challenge” due to its “very vague” language. He asserted that if Hamas is perceived to be stalling negotiations, a return to hostilities is a distinct possibility.

“I will not be surprised that if we find ourselves in such a bottleneck, the way to open it will be to resume the war in Gaza,” he continued. “If it will be clear in Washington and in Jerusalem that… this is a system which is used by Hamas just to win time… I think that resuming the war is not an impossible alternative.”

John Hannah, a senior fellow at JINSA and former National Security Advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, identified the personal commitment of U.S. President Donald Trump as a central driver.

“For the first time in two years, a president of the United States personally put the full faith and credit and power and influence of the United States on the line behind a very specific plan, because I think he finally made a determination [that] it was time to end this war,” said Hannah.

“I still worry and I don’t understand, because it’s not part of the deal, what Israel’s ultimate security responsibility will be in Gaza if things, bad things, happen,” said Hannah. “And I suppose that’s an American, Israeli separate understanding. But the thought that you’re going to build some kind of international force and Palestinian police, that at least under the plan you assume, [that] those are going to be the guys in ultimate oversight of security in this area and the IDF is out of the game, that makes me a little bit uncomfortable,” he continued.

With the ceasefire in place, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz articulated on Sunday Israel’s next primary mission. In a statement, he declared, “The great challenge for Israel after the stage of returning the hostages will be the destruction of all of Hamas’s terror tunnels in Gaza directly by the IDF and through the international mechanism that will be established under U.S. leadership and supervision. This is the main meaning of implementing the agreed-upon principle of demilitarizing Gaza and neutralizing Hamas’s weapons. I have instructed the IDF to prepare to carry out the mission.”

To oversee the ceasefire, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir on Saturday toured the Gaza Strip with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Brad Cooper. Cooper announced the establishment of a U.S.-led Civil-Military Coordination Center in an Israeli base to support post-war stability without American boots on the ground in Gaza.

The humanitarian annex of the agreement is extensive. According to Israeli security officials who spoke to JNS,, it provides for the daily entry of 600 aid trucks containing food, medicine and fuel. It also facilitates the entry of equipment to repair critical water and sewage infrastructure, and allows for the free movement of aid trucks between northern and southern Gaza via A-Rashid Road and Salah a-Din roads.
The Rafah Crossing with Egypt will reopen under E.U. supervision, permitting residents to exit and, for the first time, to return, subject to Israeli security approval.

The proximity of Israeli forces to the Rafah Crossing and the Egypt – Gaza border remains unclear at this time, though it is believed that Israel will retain overall security control over the Philadelphi Corridor, which runs along the border.

Speaking from the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem on Thursday, Shosh Bedrosian, spokeswoman for the PMO’s National Public Diplomacy Directorate, said the agreement was the culmination of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wartime strategy.
According to Bedrosian, the IDF will be positioned along the “yellow line” outlined in White House map publications, meaning that the Israeli military will hold “53% of the Gaza Strip.”

“We have reached this moment, this moment, a historic moment orchestrated by Prime Minister Netanyahu, fought by our brave soldiers with tremendous sacrifice and bravery, but also with diplomatic success,” she said. “This is a national and a moral victory for the State of Israel,” she added. “The significant and difficult decisions the prime minister took to get to this point, including pushing forward militarily into Gaza City, targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, his powerful U.N. speech and meeting with President Trump in the White House, it squeezed Hamas to this point, forcing them to come back to the table.”

Source: JNS