Regime change has come into focus as Israel relentlessly grinds down the military capabilities, institutions and symbols of the Islamic Republic. Though not an official war aim, Israeli leaders have made it clear that this is the hoped for outcome.

“Cyrus liberated the Jews. And today the Jewish state may liberate the Persians,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Channel 12 on Tuesday, referring to Persia’s Cyrus the Great, who released the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity in 538 BCE.

“Symbols of authority are being bombed and collapsing—from the broadcasting authority and soon other targets as well, while crowds of residents are fleeing,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz posted on X. “This is how dictatorships collapse.”

“The population, the majority of Iranians, hate the Islamic Republic and want it to go, but they don’t want an outside power imposing regime change on them. They want to choose their leaders,” Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told JNS.

“The world, the international community, can create the space for Iranians to realize their aspirations. And I think that that’s what, in many respects, Israel is doing with its military operation,” he said.

Ahmad Batebi, who served 10 years in an Iranian prison before escaping to the United States, where he continued his resistance activities against the Islamic Republic, told JNS that while he is confident the days of the Islamic regime are numbered, its end will not come until after Israel’s campaign.

Even traditional-minded Iranians are angry at the regime. Iranians see that there are no bomb shelters, no warning sirens to alert the population of attack; this despite the fact that the regime has been rattling swords against the West since its inception. It underscores that the regime made no effort to defend average Iranians, he said.

Batebi lists three concrete ways the West can help bring about change: 1) destroy the armories where the regime’s loyalists store their small arms; 2) facilitate communication among Iranians; and 3) eliminate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

“Israel is targeting those things that threaten itself, such as ballistic missiles, atomic sites and IRGC commanders. But the Islamic regime doesn’t use atom bombs and ballistic missiles against ordinary Iranians. It uses small arms, rifles,” Batebi told JNS.

“Those rifles are kept in centers in the cities. If you ask me what Israel or the United States can do to help Iranians, the best thing they could do is destroy those centers so the people can take to the streets to protest freely without fear that the regime will kill them,” he said.

The ayatollahs’ enforcement arm is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a military organization founded to protect the “revolution.”

“The regime doesn’t use the army, which is like armies in other countries, or the police, who are ordinary people,” Batebi said.

“The regime will kill to maintain its power. Ideology drives only 1% of the regime. The rest hide behind ideology. They shout ideological chants, but they don’t believe them. It’s about benefits, not faith. The reality is they know that if the regime falls, people will come for their heads,” he said.

The first thing those connected to the regime will do is reach for their guns, which is why the first thing the West should do is ensure those guns aren’t there, Batebi said.

Secondly, Iranians need a way to communicate. Iranians have been plunged into near-total internet darkness, apparently due to regime actions, not Israeli airstrikes. The regime has historically cut internet in times of civil unrest.

Although tech billionaire Elon Musk offered his satellite internet provider Starlink to Iranians, he hasn’t removed the $110 monthly subscription fee. That puts it out of reach of most Iranians. (A group recently launched a petition calling on Musk to offer free internet to Iranians.)

Batebi, who served for 10 years as an employee of the Voice of America Persian News Network, a Farsi-language TV station, said that it had become a trusted voice for Iranians and helped counter the Islamic Regime’s propaganda against the United States, Israel and the West.

Unfortunately for Iran, he said Voice of America became a victim of the Trump administration’s efforts to cut waste, fraud and abuse.

With the start of Israel’s campaign, the VOA brought back a skeleton crew to VOA Persian, but Batebi said 20 people isn’t enough to run the round-the-clock effort that’s needed at this time. “Iranians need a voice,” he said.

His third recommendation is assassinating Khamenei and his son Mojtaba Khamenei. “The son is worse than the father,” Batebi said, although little is heard about him in the West. “Mojtaba is the great Satan. And he is seen as the alternative leader by the IRGC.”

If the regime falls, who is the most likely replacement? Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, deposed during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is the best choice, according to Batebi.

“Prince Reza Pahlavi has legitimacy. He’s popular and he has a good team and good background. Other opposition groups were involved in the revolution. They’re compromised. People are angry at them inside Iran,” Batebi said.

On Tuesday, in an address to the Iranian nation, Reza Pahlavi urged the security forces and state employees to rise up against the Islamic regime.

“My fellow countrymen, the Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing,” Reza Pahlavi said.

“All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all,” he said. “Now is the time to rise and reclaim Iran.”

Source: JNS